GDP:Â Q2 Final Reading Holds Over 4%
September 27, 2018
Bottom Line: Economic activity was unchanged in the 2nd Quarter of 2018 from previous reports. Economic activity is now a moderate 2.9% above its year ago level and 23.4% above its previous peak level in 2007 Q4. The 3rd Quarter ends this weekend and consensus estimates are centered on 3% with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model at nearly 4.5%. Expect a contraction in exports but a rebound in investment spending as consumption growth moderates slightly. GDP was UNCHANGED at 4.2% in this third estimate for 2018 2nd Quarter. This compared with market expectations for no change revision to 4.2%. Economic activity is now 2.9% above its year ago level. In final sales categories, net exports, residential investment, fixed investment, exports, government purchases consumption were revised higher while , imports were revised lower. As a result of all of these changes, real final sales was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 5.4% while real domestic demand was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0%. The GDP Price Index was REVISED UP by 0.01 points to 3.1%, compared with market expectations no change at 3.0%. Economy-wide prices are now 2.4% ABOVE year ago levels.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors