FOMC - September 2026

September 16, 2026
The FOMC lifted its benchmark rate range by 25bp, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, as markets expected. It was the first increase since July 2023, and updated projections signal additional tightening ahead. 
Rates and Market:
  • Fed Funds Target: 3.75%-4.00%, 25bp increase.
  • Initial Market Reaction: Treasury yields initially moved lower following the decision, as the increase was priced into the market ahead of the meeting.
  • 16 of 18 participants expect at least one additional 25bp hike by year end, while only two project rates remaining at the new 3.75%-4.00% range. The median year end policy rate is approximately 4.1%, corresponding to a 4.00%-4.25% target range. 
The FOMC announced the following actions and analysis:
  • 12-0 unanimous vote to raise the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%. 
  • 16 of 18 SEP participants expect at least one additional hike in 2026, representing a clear tightening signal beyond today’s move. 
  • 2026 GDP: 2.3%, revised up from 2.2% in June. 
  • 2026 Unemployment: 4.1%, revised down from 4.3%. 
  • 2026 PCE Inflation: 3.7%, revised up from 3.6%.
  • The statement notably removed the previous characterization that elevated inflation partly reflected “supply shocks,” suggesting the Committee is increasingly concerned that inflationary pressures are broader and more persistent.
    FOMC Statement
    Implementation Note issued September 16, 2026 

Previous Report

FOMC - July 2026 (07/29/26)
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.