FOMC - October 2026
October 28, 2026
As expected, the FOMC maintained its benchmark rate range between 3.75%-4.00%. Updated projections as given by the Fed Funds futures signal additional tightening in December by 25bp.Rates and Market:
- Fed Funds Target: 3.75%-4.00%.
- Initial Market Reaction: Ahead of the announcement, Treasury yields were ~2bp across the curve. Following the decision, as an "unchanged" response was priced into the market ahead of the meeting, rates advanced an additional 2bp from their pre-announcement moves.
- Fed Fund futures imply an 87% probability of a 25bp hike in December, with two additional 25bp hikes coming in 2027.
The FOMC announced the following actions and analysis:
- 10-2 vote to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting, in favor of a 25bp hike.
- A key statement, "The accumulation of more information will help the committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation the committee's 2% goal", implying a "hawkish hold" stance.
- US economic indicators remain solid-to-robust, with higher mortgage rates dampening residential and commercial real estate investment.
Previous Report
FOMC - September 2026 (09/16/26)
The FOMC lifted its benchmark rate range by 25bp, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, as markets expected. It was the first increase since July 2023, and updated projections signal additional tightening ahead.