ADP Employment: Another Month of Solid Gains With Positive Revisions
April 4, 2018
Bottom Line: ADP reported another strong month of payroll gains with the 3-month average of gains now at 241k, sharply above the 12-month average 192k, suggesting an acceleration in private sector hiring. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number -- this would suggest some upside risk to the consensus estimate of 185k nonfarm payroll jobs in the report due Friday. ADP National Employment ROSE by 241k in March, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 210k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 9k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 192k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 65k jobs as Manufacturing gained 29k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 31k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 176k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 44k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 40k, and Financial Activities increasing by 18k workers. Small Firms hired 47k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 127k employees while Large Firms added 67k positions.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors