Consumer Sentiment: Surprise Decline But Still Strong
November 10, 2017
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's preliminary survey index suggested consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined in the first part of November. While the survey noted that expectations of higher interest rates in the coming year may have dampened expectations, the overall level and trend remains very positive. The three-month averages of the current conditions and expectations indices remain near cycle highs. Overall, sentiment has been quite strong since the election a year ago and remains so nearly 10 months into the President's term. Consumer Sentiment FELL by 2.9 points in early November to 97.8%, compared with market expectations for an increase to 100.8%. Despite this month's modest decline, sentiment is now 4.3% ABOVE its year ago level. Current Conditions FELL by 2.9 points to 113.6%. This is 5.9% ABOVE their year ago level. Consumer Expectations FELL by 2.9 points to 87.6%. Despite this month's modest decline, expectations are 2.8% ABOVE its year ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors