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Jobless Claims: Edged Higher, Model Says Declining Again

September 24, 2020

Bottom Line: Jobless claims edged higher last week, back over 800k on a non-seasonally adjusted basis with an upward seasonal adjustment of just under 25k. The 4-week average continued to decline, down to 878k on the adjusted tally, well below the 13-week average of 1.1+ million. So, while the pace of improvement has slowed, the trend is still towards modestly lower claims.

Last week's tally was nearly in-line with the forecast from our Nowcasting model, 830k (vs. 825k reported). The model for this week, to be reported next Thursday, suggests claims should fall to just below 800k on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 4k during the week ended September 19th to 870k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 840k. The 4-week average FELL by 35.3k to 878k and the 13-week average FELL by 47.1k to 1129k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 167k during the week ended September 12nd to 12,580k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 13,385k to 12,747k.The 4-week average FELL by 478k to 13,041k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 177k to 12,264k during the week ended September 5th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 8.6% during the week ended September 12nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors