Jobless Claims: Claims Steady But Trend Lower
September 10, 2020
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were steady last week at 884k as the Department of Labor's new seasonal adjustment added a modest 27k jobs to the non-seasonally adjusted tally. First implemented two weeks ago, moving from a multiplicative factor to an additive one brought down the gap between the adjusted figure, most commonly reported, and the unadjusted. Overall, looking through these adjustments, the trend remains steadily lower with the 4-week average for claims nearly 250k below the 13-week average with both averages falling.
Our Nowcasting model, based on Google search data, has predicted non-seasonally adjusted claims well. And in the current week, to be reported next Thursday, it suggests claims could fall below 800k for the first time since the pandemic.
Jobless Claims were UNCHANGED during the week ended September 5th to 884k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 850k. The 4-week average FELL by 21.8k to 971k and the 13-week average FELL by 52.5k to 1,227k.
Continuing Claims ROSE by 93k during the week ended August 29th to 13,385k, after the prior week was revised moderately lower from 17,018k to 13,292k.The 4-week average FELL by 524k to 13,982k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 55k to 13,197k during the week ended August 22nd.
The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 9.2% during the week ended August 29th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors