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Jobless Claims: Edging Lower, Below Expectations

July 9, 2020

Bottom Line: Claims were lower than expected for the first time in the last five weeks. The seasonal factor, though, did a poor job of adjusting for the 4th of July holiday. Seasonally adjusted claims edged down to just over 1.3 million in the holiday-shortened week, but the unadjusted tally was still nearly 1.4 million. Overall, the trend is moving slowly lower but remains exceptionally elevated.

Our Nowcasting model, based on Google search data, continued to close. It suggests the current week ending Saturday and reported next Thursday will still be near 1.4 million.

Jobless Claims FELL by 99k during the week ended July 4th to 1314k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 1375k.The 4-week average FELL by 63.0k to 1437k and the 13-week average FELL by 407.8k to 2553k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 698k during the week ended June 27th to 18,062k, after the prior week was revised moderately higher from 11,976k to 18,760k.The 4-week average FELL by 636k to 19,086k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 631k to 16,797k during the week ended June 20th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.5% to 12.4% during the week ended June 27th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors