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1Q20 GDP: Minor Revisions

June 25, 2020

Bottom Line: The Bureau of Economic Analysis made only very minor revisions to the 1st Quarter GDP. Historically the losses were significant, but they were likely nothing compared to those in the 2nd quarter, which comes to a close next week. While most data suggest a sharp rebound in activity since late April, the losses in activity from the shutdowns from the novel coronavirus will likely show annualized quarter over quarter declines of more than 30%. The street consensus is -35%, a historically unprecedented figure.

GDP was UNCHANGED at -5.0% in this third estimate for 2020 1st Quarter. Economic activity is now 0.3% above its year-ago level.

In final sales categories, fixed investment, and government purchases were revised higher while, net exports, residential investment, and consumption were slightly revised lower.

As a result of all of these changes, real final sales were revised up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% while real domestic demand was revised up by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%.

The GDP Price Index was REVISED UP by 0.03 points to 1.3%, compared with market expectations no change at 1.4%. Economy-wide prices are now 1.7% ABOVE year-ago levels.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors