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Jobless Claims: Still Over 1.5 Million, 44.2 Since Mid-March

June 11, 2020

Bottom Line: Claims fell only slightly in the week ended June 6th. Claims fell sharply in the advance estimates from Florida, where the state and local governments were quicker to reopen from the shutdowns for the novel coronavirus. However, New York and California, where shutdowns lasted longer but saw at least partial reopenings in recent weeks, saw an increase in claims, suggesting there remains a backlog of filings. Last week's tally was slightly above our model estimate based on Google Trends data, with the difference likely accounted for by the backlog. This week is tracking at 1.37 million claimants, likely meaning the total number of claims since mid-March has eclipsed 45 million (44.2 was the official tally through last week).

Jobless Claims FELL by 355k during the week ended June 6th to 1542k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 1550k. The 4-week average FELL by 286.3k to 2002k and the 13-week average ROSE by 102.4k to 3422k. \

Continuing Claims FELL by 339k during the week ended May 30th to 20,929k, after the prior week was revised moderately higher from 11,976k to 21,268k. The 4-week average FELL by 405k to 21,988k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 179k to 18,920k during the week ended May 23th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.2% to 14.4% during the week ended May 30th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors