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Jobless Claims: Modest Increase, Trend Steady

January 23, 2020

Bottom Line: Initial jobless claims climbed modestly after hitting a local low in the prior week. Seasonal adjustments remain significant at this time of year. The seasonal factor expected a decline of about 78k last week, and the actual decline was about 71k. On a trend basis, the 4-week average is at 213k, below the 13-week average that is now 220k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving modestly.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 6k during the week ended January 18th, 211k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 214k.The 4-week average FELL by 3.3k to 213k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 220k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 37k during the week ended January 11st to 1,731k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,767k to 1,768k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2k to 1,758k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 127k to 2,123k during the week ended January 4th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended January 11st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors