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Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline At Thanksgiving

December 5, 2019

Bottom Line: Claims were sharply lower in the week that included Thanksgiving as actual claims fell nearly 36k and the seasonal factor projected a decline of about 26k. While likely to reverse in the coming weeks amid more holiday-related volatility, this was the lowest reading since April. On a trend basis and looking through the volatility, the 4-week average is at 218k, still just above the 13-week average that is now 215k, suggesting labor markets are slowing modestly.

Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended November 30th, 203k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 215k.The 4-week average FELL by 2.0k to 218k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.2k to 215k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 51k during the week ended November 23th to 1,693k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,690k to 1,642k.The 4-week average FELL by 0k to 1,681k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 42k to 1,503k during the week ended November 16th.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.2% during the week ended November 23th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors