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Jobless Claims: Surprise Increase

November 14, 2019

Bottom Line: Claims rose sharply in the week ended November 9th. There were surprise increases in New Jersey and California. Weather was likely a factor in the Northeast, while California claims were estimated by the state last week. While this is likely one-off volatility, it bears watching going forward with the 4-week average for claims now above the 13-week average.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 14k during the week ended November 9th, 225k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 215k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.8k to 217k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.3k to 215k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended November 2nd to 1,683k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,690k to 1,693k.The 4-week average FELL by 0k to 1,688k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 19k to 1,442k during the week ended October 26th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended November 2nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors