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Jobless Claims: Modest Increase, Not Enough To Change Trend

October 31, 2019

Bottom Line: Initial claims rose modestly, led by increases in Virginian and California. The un-adjusted gains exceeded the expectation built into the seasonal factors. There was still no sign of the autoworker strike impacting claims in Michigan. Overall, the 4-week average is at 215k, just slightly above the 13-week average that is now 214k, indicating the labor market trends are mostly steady. The trend in claims has been remarkably steady for several months -- while there are clearly signs of bottoming, there are not yet hints of any increase in claims.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 5k during the week ended October 26th, 218k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 215k.The 4-week average FELL by 0.5k to 215k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.1k to 214k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 7k during the week ended October 19th to 1,690k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,676k to 1,683k.The 4-week average ROSE by 9k to 1,686k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 32k to 1,418k during the week ended October 12nd.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended October 19th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors