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ADP Employment: More Negative Revisions

October 30, 2019

Bottom Line: ADP's headline jobs figure for October came in stronger than expected, but there were substantial negative revisions to September data. Goods producing sectors saw job declines for two straight months with a trend towards net job losses since April. Service sector job gains were better in October, but revised sharply lower for September. Overall, three- and six-month average job gains now stand at 126k and 112k, respectively, down sharply from over 140k. While these data do not include government workers, the trend in ADP's payroll suggest a clear slowing in the labor market over the last six months.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 125k in October, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 148k.

Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 40k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 163k per month, lifting employment to 1.5% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 13k jobs as Manufacturing lost 4k workers. Moreover, Construction lost 4k jobs.

Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 138k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 18k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 32k, and Financial Activities increasing by 17k workers.

Small Firms hired 17k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 64k employees while Large Firms added 44k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors