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Jobless Claims: Steady Despite Sharp Increase in CA

October 17, 2019

Bottom Line: Initial claims were nearly unchanged as the unadjusted increase of 9k was in-line with the increase expected by the seasonal adjustment factor. There are still few signs of the GM/UAW strike in the data. Claims in California showed an unusual jump, likely due to the planned power outages in several parts of the state. The 4-week average for claims remains in-line with the 13-week average, suggesting labor market trends are mostly steady. Finally, these data are for the survey week for the October Employment Situation report--the weekly figure is mostly in-line with September's reading.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 4k during the week ended October 12nd, 214k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 215k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.0k to 215k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 214k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended October 5th to 1,679k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,676k to 1,689k.The 4-week average ROSE by 4k to 1,670k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 25k to 1,367k during the week ended September 28th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended October 5th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors