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Jobless Claims: Seasonal Adjustments Increase Vol

October 10, 2019

Bottom Line: Initial claims fell sharply on a seasonally adjusted basis last week as the seasonal factor expected an increase of nearly 25k, while actual claims rose just over 15k. So far impacts from the GM/UAW strike have been muted. The 4-week average for claims is in-line with the 13-week average, suggesting labor market trends are mostly steady.

Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended October 5th, 210k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 215k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.0k to 214k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.2k to 214k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 29k during the week ended September 28th to 1,684k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,676k to 1,655k.The 4-week average ROSE by 3k to 1,665k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 4k to 1,384k during the week ended September 21st.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.1% during the week ended September 28th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors