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Jobless Claims: Uptick Due to Seasonal Adjustment

October 3, 2019

Bottom Line: Initial claims rose again in the final week of September, mostly due to seasonal adjustments. Actual claims fell about 3k, while the seasonal factor expected a decline of about 7k. Still, there has been a slight uptick in claims of late that is notable as US economic growth hinges on the consumer, which is always impacted by the jobs market. The 4- week average for claims is still just below the 13-week average for now. Overall, claims have been remarkably steady at very low levels, despite uncertainty in many sectors of the economy -- but like tomorrow's payroll report, this bears careful watching.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 4k during the week ended September 28th, 219k, compared with market expectations for no change to 215k. The 4-week average was UNCHANGED at 213k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 214k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 5k during the week ended September 21st to 1,651k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,676k to 1,656k.The 4-week average FELL by 6k to 1,662k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 19k to 1,380k during the week ended September 14th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.1% during the week ended September 21st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors