Jobless Claims: Steady Ahead of Potential Volatility
September 5, 2019
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were nearly unchanged, up just 1k on a seasonally adjusted basis. Expect volatility in the coming weeks with the Labor Day holiday and the potential for disruptions due to hurricane preparations in the Southeast. For now the 4-week average is at 216k, in-line with the 13-week average, indicating stable labor market trends.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 1k during the week ended August 31st, 217k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 215k. The 4-week average ROSE by 1.5k to 216k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 216k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 39k during the week ended August 24th to 1,662k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,676k to 1,701k.The 4-week average FELL by 6k to 1,692k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 60k to 1,556k during the week ended August 17th.
The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended August 24th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors