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Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline Amid High Seasonals

July 25, 2019

Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell sharply last week with unadjusted claims falling 48k, while the seasonal factor expected a decline of 38k. Seasonal adjustments and collection differences at the state level created volatility, and that will likely continue for several more weeks in the summer season. Additionally, auto plant retooling will likely impact the data in coming weeks with temporary layoffs for auto workers. The 4-week average is at 213k, below the 13-week average of 218k , indicating the labor market trends are steady or even improving slightly at historically low levels of claims overall.

Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended July 20th, 206k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 218k.The 4-week average FELL by 5.8k to 213k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.8k to 218k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended July 13th to 1,676k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,657k to 1,689k.The 4-week average FELL by 5k to 1,697k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 6k to 1,696k during the week ended July 6th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended July 13th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors