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Jobless Claims:  Edging Higher

June 13, 2019

Bottom Line: Jobless claims edged higher last week with the 4-week average inching back above the 13-week average. Un-adjusted claims rose just over 30k, while the seasonal factor had expected an increase of 27k. While still not a turn in trend, this is the first potential cause for concern in the long downtrend in claims. Previous periods where the 4-week average rose above the 13-week average were mostly due to difficult seasonal adjustments or one-off events like weather. There are fewer reasons to explain away this potential turn in trend -- and this bears watching closely in the coming weeks, even amid some summer volatility.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 3k during the week ended June 8th, 222k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 215k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.5k to 218k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 215k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 2k during the week ended June 1st to 1,695k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,657k to 1,693k.The 4-week average ROSE by 8k to 1,683k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 12k to 1,534k during the week ended May 25th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended June 1st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors