Jobless Claims: Trend Steady Amid Seasonal Adjustments
March 21, 2019
Bottom Line: Jobless Claims fell in the week that included the survey for the nonfarm payroll report as seasonal adjustment factors were smaller. The 4-week average is at 225k, now in-line with the 13-week average, indicating a steady but strong labor market.
Jobless Claims FELL by 9k during the week ended March 16th, 221k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 225k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.0k to 225k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.3k to 225k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 27k during the week ended March 9th to 1,750k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,736k to 1,777k.The 4-week average ROSE by 6k to 1,773k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 78k to 2,011k during the week ended March 2nd.
The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended March 9th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors