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Jobless Claims: Solid Labor Market Amid Volatility

March 14, 2019

Bottom Line: Jobless Claims rose more than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis as actual claims fell less than the seasonal factor had suggested. The 4-week average is at 224k, below the 13-week average that is now 225k, indicating that labor market trends are steady amid substantial volatility in the first part of 2019.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 6k during the week ended March 9th, 229k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 225k.The 4-week average FELL by 2.5k to 224k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.8k to 225k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 18k during the week ended March 2nd to 1,776k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,736k to 1,758k.The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 1,766k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 26k to 2,087k during the week ended February 23th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended March 2nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors