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Jobless Claims:  Seasonal Bounce

February 28, 2019

Bottom Line: Jobless Claims bounced back modestly last week after falling sharply amid seasonal volatility. The 4-week average is now at 229k, above the 13-week average that is now 224k. That would normally suggest a turn in trend higher, but given the many one-offs and difficult seasonal adjustments in the last 8 weeks, the trend rate is likely little changed, suggesting continued modest to moderate expansion in the labor market.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 8k during the week ended February 23th, 225k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 7.0k to 229k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.8k to 224k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 79k during the week ended February 16th to 1,805k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,736k to 1,726k.The 4-week average ROSE by 7k to 1,762k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 42k to 2,126k during the week ended February 9th.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.3% during the week ended February 16th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors