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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Deceleration Continued into year-end

January 29, 2019

Bottom Line: Home prices rose slightly less than expected in November as some of the hottest markets on the West Coast saw price declines. Nationwide home prices saw decelerating gains in 2018 with prices increasing 4-5%, below the 5-6% gains of the prior two years. November data continued to reveal convergence nationally with the slowest cities (like Chicago, New York and DC) still accelerating and the West Coast seeing modest declines. Phoenix and Vegas remained strong. Overall the trend appears to be towards modestly slower home price appreciation in 2019.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in November to 214.2, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.4%.

Home prices are 4.7% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 3.6% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 56.6% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index FELL by 0.1% on the month.

Housing prices rose in 14 of the 20 metro areas in November (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

  • Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.2% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 13.4%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors