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Jobless Claims: Increase Due to Seasonals

December 20, 2018
Bottom Line: Claims rose last week but were heavily influenced by seasonal adjustments again. The seasonal factor had expected a decline of 19k but actual declines came in at just under 10k. There were no outliers in any particular states, suggesting volatility should be mostly due to seasonals in the coming weeks. These data are for the survey week for the December Employment Situation report--the weekly figure is slightly lower than in the equivalent week last month but the 4-week average is a touch higher than it was in November, suggesting non-farm payroll growth should be in-line with its recent trend.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 8k during the week ended December 15th, 214k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 2.8k to 222k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.9k to 217k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 27k during the week ended December 8th to 1,688k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,668k to 1,636k.The 4-week average ROSE by 7k to 1,673k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 55k to 1,705k during the week ended December 1st.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended December 8th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.