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Case-Shiller Home Prices: New Baseline?

November 27, 2018

Bottom Line: Home prices rose in September, slightly more than expected after slow gains most of the summer months. After running at a pace of 4-5% annually for several years, the last six months have seen annualized gains around 2%. And with the last three months a touch faster than the prior three months, there are hints that the deceleration in home prices might be stabilizing around the 2% annual pace. While still too early to tell for sure, there are also hints of convergence nationally with the slowest cities (like Chicago) still accelerating a bit and the fastest growth cities (Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle) decelerating more.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in September to 212.4, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.2%.

Home prices are 5.2% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 2.7% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 55.2% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index FELL slightly on the month.

Housing prices rose in 17 of the 20 metro areas in September (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

  • Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.1% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.9%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors