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Jobless Claims: Solid Underlying Trends

November 8, 2018

Bottom Line: Claims continued to fall in Georgia and Florida last week after volatility from Hurricane Michael. Expect more easing in the volatility of claims before Thanksgiving holiday adjustments start to cause a bit more volatility again. While the 4-week average for claims is just above the 13-week average, this doesn't appear to represent any shift in trend given the weather-related volatility. The trend remains towards tighter labor markets.

Jobless Claims FELL by 1k during the week ended November 3rd, 214k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 212k. The 4-week average FELL by 0.3k to 214k and the 13 week average was UNCHANGED by 0.0k to 211k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 8k during the week ended October 27th to 1,623k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,661k to 1,638k.The 4-week average FELL by 8k to 1,633k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 3k to 1,386k during the week ended October 20th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.1% during the week ended October 27th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors