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Jobless Claims: Slowly Moving Back Down

November 1, 2018
Bottom Line: Claims settled back down in Georgia and Florida last week after volatility from Hurricane Michael. There was an anomalous jump in Illinois, though, that left the week's tally just above expectations. Expect more easing in the volatility of claims before Thanksgiving holiday adjustments start to cause a bit more volatility again. Overall, the trend is still decidedly stronger for labor.

Jobless Claims FELL by 2k during the week ended October 27th, 214k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 212k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.8k to 214k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.4k to 211k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 7k during the week ended October 20th to 1,631k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,661k to 1,638k.The 4-week average FELL by 6k to 1,641k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 13k to 1,383k during the week ended October 13th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.1% during the week ended October 20th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.