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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Deceleration Continued In August

October 30, 2018

Bottom Line: Home prices rose slightly in August as gains continue to decelerate from the pace of late '17 and early '18. Year-on-year gains have fallen to 5.5% as annualized gains in the thee months ended in August were just 1.2%, a signal of significant deceleration. New York, DC and Chicago area homes continued to see the weakest price gains with year-on-year gains down to 3-3.3%. The hottest markets remains Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle, though Seattle fell sharply on the month.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in August to 211.7, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.1%.

Home prices are 5.5% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 2.4% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 54.7% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index FELL slightly on the month.

Housing prices rose in 16 of the 20 metro areas in August (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.0% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 15.0%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors