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Consumer Confidence: Unexpected Increase Again

July 31, 2018

Bottom Line: Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose again in July as consumers' assessment of their present situations hit a 15+ year high. Expectations have declined, though, falling again in July as consumers' assessments of the labor market and near-term economic outlook outlook fell. Overall, this report was mixed with expectations just holding in the range set since November '16 -- this component bears watching going forward.

Consumer Confidence ROSE by 0.3 points in July to 127.4, compared with market expectations for a decline to 126.0. The index is now 6.2% ABOVE its year ago level.

Present Situation Index ROSE by 4.2 points to 165.9. The index is 14.1% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Expectations Index FELL by 2.3 points to 101.7. The index is 1.3% BELOW its year ago level.

The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved higher by 2.8 points to 28.1.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors