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Jobless Claims: Volatile Seasonal Factors Mask Solid Trend

July 26, 2018
Bottom Line: Difficult seasonal adjustments continued to add volatility to jobless claims in the week ended July 21st as unadjusted claims fell nearly 31k, while the seasonal factor expected a decline of over 39k . On a trend basis, labor markets continue to improve -- the 4-week average is at 218k, back below the 13-week average that is now 220k.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 9k during the week ended July 21st, 217k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 215k.The 4-week average FELL by 2.8k to 218k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.6k to 220k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 8k during the week ended July 14th to 1,745k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,751k to 1,753k.The 4-week average ROSE by 10k to 1,746k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 14k to 1,759k during the week ended July 7th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended July 14th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.