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Jobless Claims: Another Increase, Hints of Labor Market Deceleration

July 5, 2018
Bottom Line: Difficult seasonal adjustments and volatile state-level data drove another a surprise increase in jobless claims in the week ended June 30th. Kentucky, a relatively small state, saw claims more than double in the week. While we continue to see strong labor market data overall, so far it looks like there was a slight deceleration in job gains in June looking at this data and the ADP data released earlier today. Tomorrow's employment report will be important to watch with consensus at 195k for nonfarm payroll gains.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 3k during the week ended June 30th, 231k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 220k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.0k to 222k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.8k to 223k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 32k during the week ended June 23th to 1,739k, after the prior week was revised moderately lower from 1,871k to 1,707k.The 4-week average FELL by 2k to 1,718k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 4k to 1,584k during the week ended June 16th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended June 23th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.