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Jobless Claims: Mostly Steady, Watching Averages Into Summer

June 21, 2018

Bottom Line: Amid a period of higher seasonal adjustments claims have seen remarkably little volatility and continue to trend lower, suggesting continued steady improvement in labor markets. That said, the 4-week average is at 224k, just above the 13-week average that is now 223k, indicating a loss of momentum that will bear watching over the summer.

Jobless Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended June 16th, 218k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 1.3k to 224k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.7k to 223k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 22k during the week ended June 9th to 1,723k, after the prior week was revised moderately lower from 1,871k to 1,701k.The 4-week average FELL by 5k to 1,723k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 17k to 1,556k during the week ended June 2nd.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended June 9th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors