Industrial Production: Positive Revisions Mostly Make Up For Miss
June 15, 2018
Bottom Line: After a sharp rise in April that was revised to be even stronger than previously reported, industrial production fell in May, missing expectations just slightly after adjusting for the revision. Overall, IP accelerated modestly in the first two months of the 2nd Quarter, despite a sharp pullback in the auto sector. Industrial production in April and May is 5.6% above its Q1 average, faster than its 2.3% pace from Q4 to Q1.
Industrial Production FELL by 0.09% in May, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.2%. Moreover, the prior month was revised from 0.7% up to 0.9%. Output is now 3.5% ABOVE its year ago level.
In May, Mining Output ROSE by 2.3%, and is now 13.0% ABOVE its year ago level. Utility Generation ROSE by 1.0% and is now 2.4% ABOVE its year ago level.
Manufacturing Output FELL by 0.7% but is now 1.7% ABOVE its year ago level. Output in high-tech industries rose by 0.2%. Meanwhile, output in the motor vehicle industry fell by 7.3%. Excluding both the high-tech and motor vehicles industries, industrial output decreased by 0.2%.
Capacity Utilization FELL by 0.2 points to 77.9%, compared with market expectations for a higher increase to 78.1%. Moreover, the prior month was revised from 78.0% to 78.1%. Capacity utilization rate is now 1.7 percentage points above its year ago level and 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2015) average.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors