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Jobless Claims: Seasonals And Weather Mask Trend

April 12, 2018

Bottom Line: Initial claims fell in the latest week after seasonal volatility caused a bump in the prior week. Seasonal factors were once again at work in the latest week, though, with the seasonal expecting an increasing of 39k and the actual coming in at 30k. Expect more volatility in the coming weeks due to seasonal factors and weather impacts. Overall, the trend is still towards a slight improvement in the labor market.

Jobless Claims FELL by 9k during the week ended April 7th, 233k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 225k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.8k to 230k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.1k to 227k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 53k during the week ended March 31st to 1,871k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,871k to 1,818k.The 4-week average FELL by 2k to 1,850k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 9k to 1,995k during the week ended March 24th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.3% during the week ended March 31st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors