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Jobless Claims: Trend Steady Amid Weekly Volatility

January 25, 2018

Bottom Line: After volatility and revisions due to the weather in mid-January, claims returned to trend levels in the latest week. The 4-week average is at 245k, above the 13-week average that is now 239k. While normally this might signal a turn in trend, the weather-related volatility has likely buoyed the 4-week average, and we'd expect it to decline towards the longer average in the coming month.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 17k during the week ended January 20th, 233k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 235k. The 4-week average FELL by 6.3k to 245k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.1k to 239k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 28k during the week ended January 13th to 1,937k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,952k to 1,965k.The 4-week average FELL by 4k to 1,921k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 99k to 2,401k during the week ended January 6th.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.4% during the week ended January 13th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors