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Jobless Claims: Weather Pushes Claims Higher

January 11, 2018

Bottom Line: Claims edged higher again in the first week of 2018. Claims in New York more than doubled from the prior week and accounted for more than half of the unexpected increase. While the Department of Labor made no special notes, harsh winter weather seems a likely explanation, and we'd expect claims to move back down over the coming weeks. For now the 4-week average is at 242k, still nearly in-line the 13-week average that is now 240k, suggesting no major change in trend.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 11k during the week ended January 6th, 261k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 245k.The 4-week average ROSE by 3.5k to 242k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.3k to 240k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 35k during the week ended December 30th to 1,867k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,914k to 1,902k.The 4-week average FELL by 6k to 1,914k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 91k to 2,077k during the week ended December 23th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.4% during the week ended December 30th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors