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Jobless Claims: Fall Back Towards October Lows

December 14, 2017

Bottom Line: Bottom Line: Claims fell in the first full week of December, bringing the the 4-week average to 235k, below the 13-week average that is now 242k, indicating the labor market trends have continued to improve. Still, expect volatility around the holidays due to difficult seasonal adjustments.

Jobless Claims FELL by 11k during the week ended December 9th, 225k, compared with market expectations for no change to 236k. The 4-week average FELL by 6.8k to 235k and the 13 week average FELL by 4.3k to 242k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 27k during the week ended December 2nd to 1,886k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,908k to 1,913k.The 4-week average ROSE by 5k to 1,919k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 90k to 1,863k during the week ended November 25th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.3% during the week ended December 2nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors