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Jobless Claims: More Volatility Due To Seasonal Adjustments

November 22, 2017

Bottom Line: Initial claims fell on a seasonally adjusted basis as actual claims rose 39k , compared with a seasonal adjustment that forecast an increase of 52k. Looking through this volatility, that will likely continue for the rest of the year, te 4-week average is at 240k, below the 13-week average that is now 251k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving modestly. Finally, these data are for the survey week for the November Employment Situation report--the weekly figure is slightly higher than in October while the 4-week average is moderately lower than than in October.

Jobless Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended November 18th, 239k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 240k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.3k to 240k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.3k to 251k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 36k during the week ended November 11st to 1,904k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,860k to 1,868k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1k to 1,890k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 92k to 1,714k during the week ended November 4th.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.4% during the week ended November 11st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors