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Case-Shiller Home Prices:  Stronger Again

October 31, 2017

Bottom Line: Home prices accelerated just slightly in the last month of the summer selling season. Still in-line with the pace of the of the last 5 years, the 6% year-on-year gain is faster than the pace of 2016 and that of 2015, both near 5%. The weakest price gains continue to stretch from New York to Washington, DC, out to the Midwest, including Cleveland and Chicago. That said the pace of gains in the slowest MSAs accelerated a touch. Seattle remains the hottest market with prices up over 14% versus a year ago. Portland decelerated slightly, now eclipsed by stronger price gains in Las Vegas and San Diego.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) in August to 200.3, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.4%.

Home prices are 6.0% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 3.1% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 46.4% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.4% on the month.

Housing prices rose in 19 of the 20 metro areas in August (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.5% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.2%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors