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Jobless Claims: Stabilizing After Weather Volatility

October 26, 2017

Bottom Line: While the Department of Labor noted that claims data remains disrupted in Puerto Rico and the USVI, there are signs that claims data is returning to trend in Florida and Texas. The 4-week average is at 240k, below the 13-week average that is now 250k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving modestly, despite the recent volatility.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 10k during the week ended October 21st, 233k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 235k.The 4-week average FELL by 9.0k to 240k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.9k to 250k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended October 14th to 1,893k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,889k to 1,896k.The 4-week average FELL by 5k to 1,904k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 32k to 1,598k during the week ended October 7th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.3% during the week ended October 14th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors