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Consumer Confidence: Pulls Back But Still Strong

May 30, 2017

Bottom Line: The consumer confidence index pulled back again in May and was revised lower for April after hitting 16+ year highs in March. The index is now modestly below its three month average. The "present situation" component of the survey is holding near its highs but the "expectations" component has slipped sharply in the last two months. Additionally, details were negative as 6-month outlooks for business fell modestly, outlooks for income fell modestly. Consumers' assessments of the labor market remained upbeat but mixed to modestly less positive than they were three months ago.

Consumer Confidence FELL by 1.5 points in May to 117.9, compared with market expectations for an increase to 119.5. The index is still 27.6% ABOVE its year ago level.

Present Situation Index ROSE by 0.4 points to 140.7. The index is 24.3% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Expectations Index FELL by 2.8 points to 102.6. The index is 30.7% ABOVE its year ago level.

The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved higher by 0.8 points to 11.7.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors