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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Solids Gains in November Amid Low Supply

January 31, 2017

Bottom Line: With existing home sales reports in late '16 revealing a trend towards lower supply, home prices accelerated across all major MSAs in November, according to S&P Case-Shiller's report. Up 5.3% year-on-year, price gains in 2016 (with still one more month to be reported) look to be a touch faster than in 2015 (5.3% vs. 5.0%). Looking at city-level data Seattle continues to see the fastest gains. New York, one of the slowest housing markets in the last year, played catch-up this month, with prices rising 1.1%. Overall, the West, especially the Pacific Northwest, Denver, Detroit and Tampa are seeing the best year-on-year gains.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.9% (seasonally adjusted) in November to 192.2, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.7%. Home prices are 5.3% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are still 7.0% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 40.5% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.2% on the month. Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in November (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

New York had the smallest year-over-year increase at 2.9% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 11.7%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors