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Consumer Confidence: Election Gains Confirmed As Expectations Rocket Higher

December 27, 2016

Bottom Line: Consumers' assessments of the economy improved sharply in December. Confidence, at 113.7, is above its three month average of 108.0. Consumers' assessments of current situations decreased while expectations rose to the highest levels in a decade as post-election gains in stock prices, continued steady gains in housing and labor markets combined with outlooks for increased government spending to boost consumer confidence. Additionally, details were positive as 6-month outlooks for business rose moderately, outlooks for income rose modestly and employment rose moderately.

Consumer Confidence ROSE by 4.3 points in December to 113.7, compared with market expectations for a decline to 109.0. The index is now 18.1% ABOVE its year ago level.

Present Situation Index FELL by 5.9 points to 126.1. The index is 8.3% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Expectations Index ROSE by 11.1 points to 105.5. The index is 27.1% ABOVE its year ago level.

The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved lower by 2.2 points to 4.4.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors