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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Holding 5+% YoY Gains

November 29, 2016
Bottom Line: Home prices rose in September for the 3rd consecutive month, holding year on year gains over 5%. All 20 major MSAs were higher with continued strength in the hottest markets -- prices in Seattle and Portland up roughly 12% on the year, while Denver, Dallas and Tampa saw gains of nearly 1% on the month, pushing year on year gains to 8 and 10%. While the overall trend in higher home prices had been losing some momentum, it appears supply constraints and an uptick in activity late in the summer selling season kept prices modestly stronger.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.4% (seasonally adjusted) in September to 189.0, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.4%. Home prices are 5.1% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are still 8.5% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 38.2% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.1% on the month. Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in September (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

New York had the smallest year-over-year increase at 1.9% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 12.1%.