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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Another Slight Decline, still 5+% vs. year ago

August 30, 2016

Bottom Line: Home prices fell in June for the third consecutive month. Declines were mostly led by those cities that have been the weakest - Chicago and New York, both of which are up 2 to 2.5% over the last year versus the 5% national average. Atlanta, still up 5.7% yoy, fell 0.6% in June. The strongest markets remain in the Pacific Northwest with Seattle and Portland up 11.3% and 14.3% year-over-year, gaining 0.5% and 1.6% on the month, respectively. The national trend in home price appreciation has settled in around 5%, though the last few months leave some concern that rate of appreciation might be slowing a bit. The coming months will be important to watch as this is June data and we'll learn how the rest of the summer selling season went in the next two months.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index FELL by 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in June to 187.8, compared with market expectations for a decline of -0.1%.

Home prices are 5.1% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are still 9.2% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 37.3% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.8% on the month. Housing prices rose in 10 of the 20 metro areas in June (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

New York had the smallest year-over-year increase at 1.9% while Portland had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.3%.

Article by contingentmacro