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ADP Employment: Modest Gain

July 7, 2016
Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose modestly in June, more than expected as Professional/Business services hiring accelerated, adding 208k jobs, vs. the 6- and 12-month average of 187k. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would suggest little change to the 180k consensus for Friday. The Q2 average for ADP is now 163k vs Q1 of 200k.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 172k in June, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 160k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 22k from the previous estimate. This was the 71st consecutive monthly increase in private payrolls. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 190k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 36k jobs as Manufacturing lost 21k workers. Moreover, Construction lost 5k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 208k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 52k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 55k, and Financial Activities increasing by 2k workers.

Small Firms hired 95k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 52k employees while Large Firms added 25k positions.
Article by contingentmacro