ADP Employment: Modest Gain

May 4, 2016
Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose modestly in April, but less than expected as goods producing industries jobs fell while professional/business services hiring decelerated, adding only 27k jobs, roughly 2/3rd of the 6 month average. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would suggest modest downside risk to the 200k consensus for Friday. ADP National Employment ROSE by 156k in April, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 195k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 4k to the previous estimate. This was the 69th consecutive monthly increase in private payrolls. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 203k per month, lifting employment to 2.0% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 11k jobs as Manufacturing lost 13k workers. Construction gained 14k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 167k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 27k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 25k, and Financial Activities increasing by 4k workers. Small Firms hired 93k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 39k employees while Large Firms added 24k positions.
Article by contingentmacro