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Jobless Claims: Below 400k

June 3, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims fell below another key marker on the path to continued labor market improvement amid more reopening and vaccine distribution. Non-seasonally adjusted claims were still above 425k, as our model had suggested, but the trend was nonetheless headed in the right direction.   Expect one more week of difficult seasonal adjustments to skew the data slightly.   Looking through the difficult seasonal adjustments, the trend remains lower with the 4-week average at 428k, below the 13-week average of 584k. 
Our Nowcasting model suggests the current week is running at 383k unadjusted.
Jobless Claims FELL by 20k during the week ended May 29th to 385k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 387k.The 4-week average FELL by 30.5k to 428k and the 13 week average FELL by 28.9k to 584k.

Continuing Claims
ROSE by 169k during the week ended May 22nd to 3,771k, The 4-week average ROSE by 23k to 3,688k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 23k to 3,504k during the week ended May 15th.
The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by  0.1% to 2.7% during the week ended May 22nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.